Western capitals now openly acknowledge the reality that their proxy war in Ukraine has run out of steam. Desperate new policy directions are being discussed in NATO circles. But a decision to end the war will be taken only by Moscow.

An article by Big Serge, Russo-Ukrainian War: The reckoning on 16 November 2023 offered an in-depth detailed analysis by a military expert of how the war is going. In summary, Big Serge claims that the war has reached a stage when:

‘ … despite Russia’s many obvious advantages (which in the end come down to a superior indigenous capacity to mobilize men, industrial output, and technology), it became “propaganda” to argue that Russia was going to achieve some sort of victory in Ukraine – that Ukraine would end the war having failed to re-attain its 1991 borders (Zelensky’s stated victory condition) and with the country in a wrecked state of demographic hollowing and material destruction.

‘At last, we seem to have reached a denounement phase, where this view – allegedly an artifact of Kremlin influence, but in reality the most straightforward and obvious conclusion – is becoming inescapable. Russia is a bigger fighter with a much bigger bat.’

The Economist lead article on 29 November (‘Russia is poised to take advantage of political splits in Ukraine – politics has returned, but the fighting has gone nowhere’) came to similar gloomy conclusions. Relations between President Zelensky and military commander-in-chief Zaluzhny are said to be terrible. A blame game is now underway about who is responsible for the failure of Kiev’s summer counter-offensive which went nowhere at huge and tragic cost in Ukrainian lives and weapons. Public trust in the president has fallen to a net 32%, less than half that of the still popular General Zaluzhny (at 70%).

The Economist claims that Russia is already trying to capitalise on the........

© Pearls and Irritations