Pillar 2 is a thing that AUKUS created: it appears at different times and with different meanings and possibilities and yet is not entirely, or even at all, predictable because the initial conditions and predicate logic on which it depends are themselves illusions or fabrications of the collective mind of those who constructed it in a national security strongroom to which only they have the keys.

In a background paper for the US Congress on Pillar 2 of AUKUS, the Congressional Research Service has provided the sort of detail and context which hint at what it is and, paradoxically, why it might not turn out to be the worthy object of cargo-cult veneration that AUKUS promotional materials hold it to be.

It details that Pillar 2 activities have been coordinated among the US, British, and Australian Governments by several means, including working groups of which at least eight are currently active: six address particular technological areas (undersea capabilities, quantum technologies, artificial intelligence and autonomy, advanced cyber, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, and electronic warfare); two address broader functional areas such as innovation and information sharing.

Given the diversity of technological and functional areas encompassed by AUKUS Pillar 2, and the fact that many of the activities undertaken within them are security classified, they are referred to by the US Department of Defence as international armaments cooperation; the CRS advises that the amount of information available on them is expected to be limited.

When, in the course of a recent interview with Breaking Defence Indo-Pacific, Defence Minister Richard Marles was asked how, at a fundamental level, he would define the success of Pillar 2, his reply appeared to go beyond beneath even the low expectations and the forewarning implied in the CRS paper.

Indeed, the more he elaborated, the less confidence could be taken from his assurances; in truth, they were hardly reassurances, but they were consistent with the CRS.

Thus: “Success means . . . that at some point we need to be looking at new, cutting-edge innovative capabilities that have gone into service more quickly because of Pillar 2 cooperation. That’s the test . .”

Marles then conceded that,........

© Pearls and Irritations