Governments across Australia are responding to perceived youth crime “crises” with harsher laws. But national data tell a very different story – one that raises serious questions about punishment, politics and evidence.

Youth crime is never far from the public consciousness, but Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s announcement of “ adult time for violent crime” has brought the issue back into sharp focus.

The proposed changes would see children as young as 14 tried in adult courts, possibly facing life terms. The move comes just one year after Victoria became the first state to raise the minimum age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12.

For context, the United Nations and the Australian Human Rights Commission’s  recommended age is 14.

Victoria’s move follows Queensland’s “adult crime, adult time” laws, which target children as young as ten, and were  recently expanded. Similarly, in New South Wales, tough new bail laws targeting children have resulted in  more children spending longer in NSW jails.

The government in the Northern Territory has also  lowered the age of criminal responsibility to ten and  reclassified some crimes to make it harder for young people to access diversion programs.

Based on these punitive responses, you’d think youth crime was at crisis levels nationally. But what do the data say? Let’s take a close look at the numbers.

Across Australia, youth offending has been broadly in decline for some time now.

According to latest  Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, in 2023–24 there were 1,764 offenders per 100,000 people aged 10-17, down 28 per cent in........

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