THE conflict in the Gulf is often discussed in Pakistan as an oil story, a shipping story or a diplomatic story.

It is all three. But it is also an agrifood story. For countries like Pakistan, the Strait of Hormuz is not just a distant maritime chokepoint. It is a gateway through which energy, fertilizer, remittances and food security are tied together. The latest FAO information note on the 2026 Middle East conflict is valuable because it forces us to see these interconnections. Under normal conditions, around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products pass through Hormuz, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Within days of the conflict, tanker traffic through the strait reportedly collapsed by more than 90 per cent, disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers.

For Pakistan, the first danger is not merely expensive petrol. It is the transmission of energy shock into agriculture. The Gulf region is not only a leading supplier of oil and gas; it is also a major exporter of nitrogen fertilizers. FAO notes that Gulf countries account for roughly 30–35pc of global urea exports and around 20–30pc of ammonia exports, while up to 30pc of internationally traded fertilizers normally transit Hormuz. Once maritime flows are disrupted, the consequences move into fertilizer prices, farmer costs, crop........

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