India-Russia relations have always been rooted in nostalgia. The relations between these two nations are a blend of durable strategic habits and fast-changing structural realities. Expectations from the Vladimir Putin-Narendra Modi meeting remain high, but the partnership is being remade by contemporary geopolitical realities, sanctions, energy shifts, defence diversification, and India’s broader great-power balancing. Understanding this duality of continuity and change is essential to grasp where the relationship is actually headed.

Defence: History and Expectations

Since the 2000 Declaration on Strategic Partnership and the 2010 upgrade to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership", both sides have expected a relationship marked by political trust, unhindered defence supplies, and reliable support in multilateral forums. Moscow backed India’s candidature for a permanent UN Security Council seat and coordinated with New Delhi in BRICS, SCO, and the G20, reinforcing an image of Russia as India’s time-tested great-power partner.

In Indian strategic thinking, this history underpins the expectation that Russia will remain a key pillar of strategic autonomy—offering advanced defence technology, diplomatic cover, and room for manoeuvre vis-à-vis both China and the West. For Russia, the expectation has been that India will stay its most important partner in Asia outside China, a market for arms and hydrocarbons, and a political voice that resists Western narratives on issues like NATO or sanctions.

Defence and Security: From Dependence to Diversification

Defence ties are the most visible anchor, from legacy platforms (MiG and Sukhoi aircraft, T-90 tanks, INS Vikramaditya) to flagship projects like BrahMos and the S-400 system. The expectation on both sides was of near-automatic continuity: Russia as primary supplier, India as dependable buyer, with gradual indigenisation through licenced production.

The reality is more complex. Russia still accounts for the largest single share of India’s arms imports, but that proportion has fallen........

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