On Monday night, Donald Trump announced plans to impose sweeping tariffs on some of the United States ‘largest trading partners. Goods imported from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, Trump said, while those from China will face a 10 percent tariff. Whether or not these particular measures are enacted, the next administration—whose ringleaders have long promised to rid the country of everything from clean energy tax credits to a non-existent “electric vehicle mandate”—could determine the future of the U.S. auto industry.

Trump has an isolationist agenda, and American carmakers are already quite isolated. Looser regulations, higher tariffs, and scaled-back incentives to invest in electric vehicles could further separate domestic automakers from global markets where they’re struggling to compete. These policies could also encourage U.S. automakers to double down on their best-selling, mostly gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs that are primarily sold in North America.

That could harm car companies themselves, in addition to the climate. U.S. car companies as well as European companies with a significant American presence “have to be careful, because they also need to export vehicles to the rest of the world,” says Michael Robinet, executive director of Automotive Advisory Services at S&P Global Mobility. “If the rest of the world is accepting battery electric vehicles, then increasingly our internal combustion engine-focused offerings are going to have more difficulties in export markets.”........

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