The clearly visible and practically tangible escalation in tensions between Ethiopia on the one hand and Somalia and Egypt on the other calls into question the prospects for peaceful coexistence of virtually all the Horn of Africa states.

A General Overview

Overall, there are two most logical starting points for the current round of escalation. In line with the broader approach, the preconditions for the confrontation we are witnessing were laid in 2020-2022 during the armed phase of the Tigray conflict—nominally an intra-Ethiopian crisis, which in practice had a colossal impact on the region-wide system of interstate relations and security. It appears that the success of Abiy Ahmed’s government in that war created favorable conditions in the Ethiopian political landscape for the consolidation of power in the hands of the federal center and its subsequent pivot to foreign policy issues. At the same time, it is also appropriate to take the position that the starting point of the “Ethiopia vs. the rest” conflict should be considered to be Abiy Ahmed’s autumn statements, which put........

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