The “Davidson Window” marks a narrowing window of deterrence, as Beijing’s growing military confidence collides with Washington’s fading strategic ambiguity over Taiwan.

Introduction

Taiwan Crisis: A Red Line for China

Taiwan is a self-governed island that is located approximately 110 km from mainland China with a population of about 23 million people. The government of Taiwan practices democracy, which means that it has maximum support from the West, especially the US. However, China has declared Taiwan to be its indispensable part under the ‘One China’ policy. China asserts this claim on historical grounds and considers any foreign intervention in Taiwan as a national security threat. The position of the United States over Taiwan is, till date, ambiguous. The goal is to keep both China and Taiwan guessing. But through the empowerment of the Pacific allies, i.e., Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and by keeping a robust military presence in the area, the US has been deterring China from invading Taiwan.

Davidson Window

The Davidson Window is a time frame where China is thought to be able and even desire to militarily attack Taiwan. This was introduced by a former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson. He issued this warning in 2021, in his testimony before the US Congress, and noted that within the next six years, China could seek to reunite Taiwan by force. That statement created a strategic alarm, and analysts started calling this period the “Davidson Window.” The 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the year 2027 is also........

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