With the final date for nominations closing in Haryana, frenzied campaigning has begun in the state, which will vote on October 5. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is grappling with a triple anti-incumbency situation and is fighting an uphill battle in an election where the Congress is considered the favourite to win.

Although trends in both Lok Sabha and assembly elections are not favourable for the BJP, the 2024 general elections demonstrate that no election in India is a foregone conclusion until the last vote is counted.

As of September 12, there were 1,745 candidates in the fray - about 20 per seat - with the final date for withdrawal set for September 16. The ticket distribution has sparked rebellion, particularly within the BJP, while the Congress has faced less dissent. Many candidates who were denied tickets have filed nominations as independents. The BJP has replaced 15 MLAs, while Congress has not re-nominated three.

With five main parties contesting - Congress, BJP, Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party, Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party, and Aam Aadmi Party-approximately 15 candidates from smaller parties and independents have filed their papers. Over the next few days, parties will attempt to persuade rebels to withdraw their nominations.

Haryana is experiencing several competing and parallel trends. No party has won a third consecutive term in the state since its inception in 1966. However, the BJP, which replaced its Chief........

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