The recent U.S.–China summit was a small, sensible step forward in efforts to avoid outright war. Can that equilibrium be maintained?

The most consequential relationship in the next decade involves the U.S. and China. It is also the most contentious. Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping know that outright war would be catastrophic for both countries and presumably want to avoid a disastrous confrontation. Last month’s summit near San Francisco was a small step in that direction. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan declared that the objective was to manage competition responsibly “so that it does not veer into conflict.”

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Washington and Beijing are in opposite camps on global flashpoints — Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan — and that is unlikely to change. China confidently expects to be the dominant global power by 2049 — the 100th anniversary of the Chinese communist party’s civil war victory.

The United States’ formal national security strategy says China is “the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it.” In Xi’s grand view, China is inexorably rising while the U.S. is irreversibly declining. Photos of a seemingly fragile Biden walking alongside a more vigorous Xi in the garden outside the meeting help explain why the U.S. president’s polls are sputtering. His age and demeanour are factors.

During a four-hour discussion at the summit, the tone was measured and, at times, friendly. Both sides wanted to cool the temperature seemingly because they recognize that, as scholar Graham Allison observed, “Each nation’s very survival........

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