Thanks to Ukraine, Russia now needs years to rebuild its losses, but its resolve to disrupt the NATO alliance remains undiminished

Two years ago, the United States and United Kingdom were giving themselves something of a pat on the back for having accurately forecast Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This went against the common wisdom of many western European nations at the time — France, Germany and Italy, in particular. Even the Ukrainians didn’t seem to believe that Russia would have the audacity to mount a full-scale invasion, despite having massed tens of thousands of troops on its border.

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When countries start wars, they typically have one of three strategic approaches in mind. One is annihilation: completely overwhelming the enemy or “decapitating” its leadership and overthrowing its government.

The second is attrition: a strategy that seeks to gradually wind down and degrade the opposing side’s military, to a point where they have no alternative but to seek terms.

The third is exhaustion: a strategy that more actively targets the country’s civilian population and its will to fight, for example by cutting it off from the outside world by blockading it.

Most wars typically start off with an annihilation strategy in mind, and in Russia’s case, it had clearly gotten carried away with its own hubris, given the presence of parade uniforms in the invading........

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