For months now, the world has been subjected to a spectacle that would be amusing were it not so dangerous. Every few days, Donald Trump emerges to declare that peace is at hand, that a settlement with Iran is within reach, that a breakthrough is imminent, and that history is about to be made. The statements are delivered with the confidence of a man announcing tomorrow's weather after having ignored every forecast for the past decade. Then reality intrudes. Iran says negotiations are continuing. Israel launches another operation. Missiles fly. Shipping insurers panic. Oil markets twitch. Diplomats scramble. The promised breakthrough dissolves into yet another round of uncertainty. And thus continues the great theatre of West Asia.

The tragedy is that uncertainty itself has become policy. No figure embodies this more than Benjamin Netanyahu. For nearly four decades, Netanyahu has warned that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon. He has made the same argument to successive American administrations. He made it during the Clinton years. He made it to Obama. He made it to Biden. He made it to Trump. The language changes, and the timelines change, but the warning remains the same. Iran is always months away. Iran is always weeks away. Iran is always one final step away. Yet, four decades later, the apocalypse that was perpetually around the corner remains exactly there, around the corner.

Special Coverage: US-Israel War Against Iran

While Netanyahu's defenders would argue that the bomb has not materialised precisely because of constant vigilance, his critics would say that a prediction repeated for forty years ceases to be a prediction and becomes a political instrument. Whatever one's conclusion, it........

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