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The size of the deficit announced for 2024-2025 in Quebec was surprising. Now that the dust has settled, should Quebecers be worried? Is it really a historic deficit? Most importantly, what will be required to return to a balanced budget?

While last year’s estimate was for a deficit of $3 billion, the projection is now $11 billion. Less surprisingly, government revenues have been revised downward as the economic outlook weakens. A drop in profits from government enterprises has weighed on revenue while spending has increased with new collective agreements. The government also announced new initiatives costing nearly $2.2 billion.

Compared to the previous budget, the data in the financial framework show that almost $28 billion in deficits would be added in the years 2023-2024 to 2028-2029. The expected results, as illustrated in the financial framework, point to a structural deficit of around $3 to $4 billion.

It has been suggested that the $11-billion deficit is a record, notably higher than that observed during the pandemic. But what is the real situation?

The financial framework indicates a deficit within the meaning of the Balanced Budget Act of $11 billion for the year 2024-2025, while in absolute dollars, the largest deficit observed was $10.8 billion in the 2020-2021 pandemic year.

That said, if we........

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