Kamala Harris announced her proposed housing plan last week. The policy will be expensive – perhaps as much as $500 billion - and will do much less to facilitate home ownership than it could, because it does not address the most important reason why housing is expensive: high construction costs. Instead, the plan significantly subsidizes housing demand, which will put upward pressure on housing costs.

One of the biggest demand subsidizers in the proposal is to provide $25,000 to first-time home buyers, perhaps in the form of a tax credit, though that has not been specified yet. Her proposal states this award will be available to “over 4 million” households. The “over” part of this proposal is what could make it so expensive, because “over” could be “way over.” Let’s take a look at some possibilities.

There are about 44 million US households who rent. The proposal’s eligibility requirements do not appear to be stringent: it requires that someone in the household works and that the household has not been delinquent on rent payments for two years. In 2020, as the economy was suffering from the pandemic, about 18 percent of renters were delinquent. Delinquency dropped to 11.5 percent last year.

You may think that the requirement of being a first-time homebuyer would limit eligibility, but it doesn’t. One reason is because the term “first-time homebuyer” does not mean “first time.” HUD classifies you as a first-time homebuyer if either you or your spouse has not been an owner of your principal residence for the last three years. This includes a married couple in which one person did not have their name on the deed of their home. It also includes people who own property but rent their principal residence. And the three-year requirement will not be an issue in any case, because only 1–2 percent of homeowners each year become renters. If Harris’s plan follows the HUD definition of a........

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