Why 2026 should terrify Republicans after Tennessee special election
Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps of Tennessee, who won a hotly contested special congressional election, is sworn in as the 220th Republican member of the House of Representatives.
As the old saying goes, "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades," and the GOP is certainly breathing a sigh of relief coming out of Tuesday night’s special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points in a race that received a great deal of national attention in recent weeks.
That relief, however, will be short-lived upon further analysis because President Trump carried Tennessee's 7th by more than 20 points just a year ago, and the district hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress in more than four decades.
THE TENNESSEE 'WALTZ': REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS DANCE AROUND SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS MEANING
Despite millions in outside GOP spending, direct on-the-ground involvement from Speaker Johnson and President Trump, last night’s results represent a 13-point shift toward the Democrats compared to 2024.
Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps of Tennessee, left, shakes hands with Speaker Mike Johnson after being sworn in to the U.S. House on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., Dec. 4, 2025 (AP)
For Republicans who spent the last month downplaying Democratic overperformance statewide in Virginia and New Jersey and in key elections in traditionally friendlier territories in Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, last night should be a wake-up call for Team Red.
Here are five key takeaways from the results and what they mean for next year’s battle for Congress come November.





















Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Penny S. Tee
Sabine Sterk
Mark Travers Ph.d
Gilles Touboul
John Nosta
Daniel Orenstein