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One of the most famous Sherlock Holmes stories pivots on what Sherlock notes: the curious incident of the dog in the night. When the Scotland Yard inspector says the dog did nothing in the night, Sherlock explains that was what was curious. Understanding why the dog didn’t bark was essential to solving the mystery.  

In our case, many political professionals, in the best Scotland Yard fashion, have noted that in the 2024 election, abortion "did nothing." That’s a starkly different outcome than what Democrats expected, based on the post-Dobbs 0-for-12 loss record (with the results in Virginia in 2023 being counted as a draw), on abortion-related ballot initiatives and special elections, and crushing expected red waves.  

Why was 2024 different? Did abortion just disappear as a concern, overwhelmed by the economy and illegal immigration? Or was there something that kept that dog from barking? The answer matters to future elections. 

PRO-LIFE GROUPS SOUND OFF AFTER TRUMP SAYS HE WILL NOT RESTRICT ABORTION PILLS: 'SERIOUS AND GROWING THREAT'

In early 2024, my firm, Suasion Insights, began research both nationally and with a deep dive in Pennsylvania, tasked with seeing if there was any way pro-life Republicans could at least neutralize the abortion issue without abandoning their principles. 

Despite strident support for abortion on the left, the issue didn't define the election. FILE: An abortion-rights demonstrator holds a sign demanding, "KEEP ABORTION LEGAL" (AP)

We shared our findings with federal GOP campaigns and organizations, starting with five foundational insights on what was driving, and triggering, those otherwise getable voters they were losing over this........

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