‘Outnumbered’ panel on concerns with President Biden ahead of the election and the president confusing Ukraine with NATO

For months now, I’ve been deflecting questions about polling of the 2024 general election – which increasingly looks to be a rerun of 2020’s match-up of Trump v. Biden: Don’t ask election analysts who will win … ask an economist or a foreign policy expert.

For former President Donald Trump, polling right now looks pretty good. So good, in fact, that it’s blunted what looked to be a core argument of Trump’s Republican challengers – "I’ll pursue Trump’s policies – and I’ll win the election." ("Unlike him" – an unspoken tagline that’s proving ineffective given recent polls.)

The Democrats respond by trying to camouflage the scratches of panic from their throats – "polls a year away don’t matter" … "the election will change once folks think about the choice" and my all-time favorite "the abortion issue will work (just like in 2022)."

TRUMP HOLDS LARGE LEAD OVER HALEY 4 DAYS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

They almost sound like they’ve convinced themselves. (FYI: They haven’t.)

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are likely caught in an unusual battle of incumbents. (Getty Images)

Polls this year are likely to be hard to read and interpret.

That’s particularly true because – as we wrote earlier – there appear to be essentially two incumbents running – each with their records and personalities that the public can judge.

The likely GOP candidate is one of the most polarizing figures in modern political history. Whatever folks – supporters and opponents alike – think of Trump today, in December 2023, is unlikely to change between now and November. The only way to paint Trump is to use primary colors.

President Joe Biden, by contrast, is one of the least colorful national political figures in recent memory, a view completely consistent with his favorite ice cream flavor – vanilla. After he won the South Carolina primary in 2020, Democrats didn’t so much rally to his side as they got in line and breathed a collective sigh of, "Oh, well, OK, Biden’s fine."

This year, that gets complicated by the regular occurrence of apparent stumbles in memory or leaving the stage – and, last week, the special counsel’s assessment that Biden would come off as a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

Especially in the polarized political environment of 2024, at best, it makes it harder for potential Democrat voters to decide to vote for Biden – and makes it easier for reluctant GOP voters to decide that they’d prefer to get back to Trump.

The two contrasting metaphors were borne out in recent polling.

While Trump basically holds steady in most polls – in the high 40s, Biden bounces around from poll to poll – more often behind Trump – but sometimes ahead. In all cases, analysts pore over the data looking for an explanation for why the race has changed.

Capitol police make arrests at Mennonite protest calling for Gaza ceasefire in Cannon Rotunda. How Biden handles Israel's war against Hamas terrorists is one of five key issues this election. (Fox News)

Unlike Trump – whose Republican base has solidified in........

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