Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier examines some of the most competitive U.S. Senate races in the 2024 election on 'Special Report.'

"Low Ceiling – High Floor." It's one of the few mantras that has remained true – over this past election year – the notion that "Trump has his number."

In Fox News national polls, the former president has remained the choice of 48-50% of the U.S. electorate since the primaries started. His support didn’t dip despite convictions, and it stayed strong when incumbent President Joe Biden was the apparent nominee as well as when Biden gave a well-received State of the Union speech in March.

Trump’s support didn’t appreciably go up even after he survived and showed courage following an assassination attempt – and went on to have a flawless and unified convention. It didn’t even go up when his then opponent (Biden) belly-flopped in the debate and Democrats were fleeing their nominee.

Trump’s support stayed steady even when the Democrats quickly subbed in Vice President Kamala Harris to be their Party’s nominee – and much of the media was reporting that she had a great surge of momentum.

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: TRUMP LOSES HIS EDGE AS WE BRACE AGAIN FOR POST-DEBATE IMPACT

Even then, Trump’s support stayed solid in the range of 48-50%.

All the most reputable polls – the ones that focus on using a random probability sample and live phone interviews-- consistently show Trump’s support staying solid with almost half of the American electorate.

Sometimes, the polls have Harris in the lead, sometimes she may even be behind. But it’s unlikely........

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