Throughout this year, American officials have been privately and publicly signaling to their Chinese counterparts that the United States is firmly committed to upholding its alliance commitments to the Philippines. The message is intended as a warning not to test the limits of American tolerance for Chinese attempts to obstruct access to Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the South China Sea where a grounded Philippines vessel, the Sierra Madre, serves as an outpost for Filipino soldiers. In May, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. delivered a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, warning that if a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act, it would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war,” which could compel the Philippines to invoke the1951 mutual defense treaty with the United States.

Such rhetoric has not stopped Beijing from trying to prevent the Philippines from resupplying the Sierra Madre. The Philippines has successfully reinforced the outpost in recent months. But on June 17, the Chinese Coast Guard intentionally collided with a Philippine resupply boat. Chinese servicemen wielded axes, machetes, and improvised spears, and a Filipino sailor lost a finger in the ensuing skirmish. A video of the confrontation went viral. Chinese and Philippine vessels continue to operate close to one another. The risk remains high that an incident could result in the death of a Filipino soldier, potentially triggering the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and bringing American and Chinese forces to the brink of conflict.

To manage through this current moment, Washington will need to operate with clarity on its goals. For Washington, success is upholding the credibility of its alliance commitments, avoiding conflict with China, and preventing Chinese occupation of Second Thomas Shoal. Achieving these results will require Washington to weigh every policy decision against whether it does more to prevent or provoke a crisis. Second Thomas Shoal is a strategic challenge with a military dimension. It is not a military problem with a military solution. Washington must resist pressure to frame this issue as a test of wills between the United States and China and instead leverage Beijing’s bullying at Second Thomas Shoal to strengthen its relationships in the region.

Second Thomas Shoal carries tremendous symbolic weight for the United States, China, and the Philippines. At present, there is little hope of compromise. Washington views the struggle over Second Thomas Shoal as threatening the credibility of its security commitments, which underpin the United States’ standing in Asia and around the world. If Washington fails to stand firm in defense of the Philippines, the thinking goes, then other allies and security partners will question the United States’ reliability and begin to hedge.

For Manila, Second........

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