Customers enter Macy's in New York City on "Black Friday," November 24, 2023. The National Retail ... [ ] Federation is predicting that spending will be up 2.5% to 3.5% this year. (Photo by Yuki IWAMURA / AFP) (Photo by YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects retail sales during November and December to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%, with consumers spending at least $25 billion more than last year.

That would be slower growth than last year’s pace of 3.9%, but would still push holiday spending to record levels.

“We’re optimistic about the pace of economic activity through the remainder of this year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a press conference announcing the forecast.

Lower energy costs, encouraging inflation news, and upward revisions to income and savings rates gives the NRF “increased confidence on the economy’s strength in the near term outlook,” Kleinhenz........

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