WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 06: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President ... [ ] Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida. Americans cast their ballots today in the presidential race between Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as multiple state elections that will determine the balance of power in Congress. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

As Donald Trump prepares to take office in January 2025, experts in trade and investment are weighing up the potential impact of his policies.

In his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on imports from China and targeted goods, such as steel and aluminum, which effectively doubled the total dollar amount of tariffs collected. He looks to go further in his second term, saying upon entering office he will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada — the United States’ two biggest trade partners — and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. He has also touted reciprocal tariffs matching what individual countries impose on U.S. exports.

There is little doubt that tariffs are coming. The question is how soon. “I think we need to anticipate big tariff increases, if not by legislation then by existing statutory authority. This has been Trump’s MO and I have no reason to believe he will change,” says Erik Autor, of counsel at Washington-based customs and trade law firm Barlow & Co and........

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