As the showdown over the Strait of Hormuz drags on, most of the world’s attention has focused on the most visible shock: the loss of vital oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf. That alone has been enough to send crude prices surging back above $100 a barrel and to revive fears of energy shortages in Asia, rising pump prices in the West and a fresh burst of global inflation. Barclays warned this week that a prolonged closure could remove 13 million to 14 million barrels a day from the market.

But oil and gas are only the opening act. Gulf Arab states are also major suppliers of the industrial inputs that quietly sit underneath modern life: fertilizers and their key feedstocks such as sulfur, along with aluminum, petrochemicals and helium.

Over the last two decades, the Gulf’s big hydrocarbon exporters successfully leveraged oil and gas wealth into downstream industries, building fertilizer plants, metals smelters, petrochemical hubs and industrial-gases capacity. That diversification made their economies stronger. It also made the global economy more dependent on a region now sitting in the crosshairs of Iran’s campaign to squeeze the world’s most important maritime chokepoint.

Fertilizer Trouble Hits First

Alarm bells are ringing loudest on fertilizers. Roughly 30% of globally traded fertilizers move through the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf producers are major suppliers of ammonia and urea. “The fertilizer shock may carry the most severe consequences of any commodity impacted by the Hormuz closure, with Northern Hemisphere planting seasons now directly at risk,” analysts Vitaly Kononov and Vadim Merkulov wrote in a Commodities Review for Freedom Broker, an affiliate of the Nasdaq-listed Freedom Holdings Corp.

The analysts note that roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, including 23% of global ammonia, 34% of urea and nearly 20% of world phosphate. Urea is a nitrogen-rich fertilizer used widely to support wheat and leafy greens production.

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Reuters reported that Middle East urea export prices have jumped roughly 40% — from just under $500 to above $700 a metric ton — while Bank of America estimates some fertilizer prices are already up 30% to 40%. Analysts cited by Reuters warn that nitrogen fertilizer prices could double in a prolonged disruption scenario.

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India, which sources roughly 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilizers from the Middle East, has already rushed to secure additional cargoes, some of which may not arrive in time for planting. Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertilizer plants, while Brazil — heavily dependent on imported fertilizers — also relies in part on shipments that typically transit through Hormuz.

Sulfur is both a key input for fertilizers as well as processing metals, and Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC are among the biggest exporters. Reuters reported that Indonesian nickel makers, which rely on the Middle East for 75% of their sulfur needs, are warning of potential production cuts. Bloomberg reported similar concerns in the Philippines.

Gulf Leaders Warn Of ‘Economic Terrorism’

ADNOC Chief Executive and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Al Jaber described the closure of the Strait as a global crisis, calling any restriction of passage through Hormuz “economic terrorism,” adding that when Iran “holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy.”

Asia is hardest hit on both hydrocarbons and fertilizers. “Right now, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is, in a sense, an Asian crisis,” Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on Monday. “The vulnerability is known, but it has never been tested to the extreme that it is being tested today.”

Metals Markets Feel The Squeeze

Aluminum is another pressure point. Gulf Arab producers account for roughly 10% of global primary output and about 20% of exports, according to Natixis. Early signs of disruption are emerging, with some smelters curtailing output and London Metal Exchange prices rising toward multiyear highs.

SNIPS, a trade publication covering the sheet metal and metals fabrication industry, noted that aluminum is now “at the epicenter of a historic price spike.” “More than just numbers on a screen, this represents a major supply artery for the global market,” Austin Keating wrote for SNIPS. “Aluminum shipped through the Strait last year was bound for 70 countries across Asia, Europe, and North America.”

Plastics And Petrochemicals Come Under Pressure

Petrochemicals are also under pressure. Reuters reports that $20 billion to $25 billion worth of petrochemical products pass through Hormuz each year, and that disruptions have already pushed plastics and polymer prices toward multiyear highs. The Middle East accounted for more than 40% of global polyethylene exports in 2025, led by Saudi Arabia. That matters because polyethylene and polypropylene sit inside everything from food packaging and medical equipment to auto parts and household goods. The longer the disruption persists, the more this becomes an inflation story far beyond the energy complex.

A Helium Shortage Looms Over Tech

Then there is helium, a niche input that becomes anything but niche when supply tightens. Semiconductor production could be hit over the longer term, though analysts say company stockpiles and alternative suppliers may cushion the near-term impact. Qatar produces roughly one-third of the world’s helium. A prolonged shortage could ripple across industries from artificial intelligence and semiconductors to healthcare and advanced manufacturing.

Semiconductor executives speaking at SEMICON China said the shortage is already affecting production, tightening lead times and forcing companies to seek alternative sources. Helium is also essential for medical imaging, precision manufacturing and a range of industrial processes that underpin everything from AI hardware to healthcare systems.

Talks, Tenions And The Risk Of Escalation

Meanwhile, the geopolitical stakes are rising. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is reinforcing the region with two Marine Expeditionary Units and additional airborne forces, giving Washington more options if it decides that protecting navigation requires a more forceful response. Among the scenarios discussed publicly by analysts is a potential move against Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, though the scope of any such operation remains uncertain and highly fluid.

Tehran, for its part, has warned that any attack on its southern coast or islands would trigger mine-laying and a broader closure of the Gulf. Analysts say escalation could extend to further strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure — a “scorched earth” scenario that risks widening the conflict and sending new shockwaves through the global economy.

President Donald Trump underscored the stakes Thursday, urging Tehran to accept a proposal to end the war and warning that otherwise “we’ll just keep blowing them away.”

© Forbes