Required increases in electricity generation and distribution call for much faster growth than the province has experienced in decades

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By Robert Lyman

Ontario’s Independent Electricity Systems Operator (IESO) recently issued its Annual Planning Outlook setting out its projections of provincial electricity demand, generation capacity and energy needs over the period 2025-50. The report foresees steady growth year after year, with total electricity demand increasing 60 per cent over the next 25 years. As a result, IESO foresees a growing supply shortfall and large “acquisition needs” starting as soon as 2029.

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What are the chances the province will be able to build enough capacity to meet these new demands? IESO set out its views on policy and planning in December 2022 in Pathways to Decarbonization, a largely-ignored but extremely important report to Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith.

The Pathways report assessed both the feasibility and cost of complying with the federal government’s goal of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Using the “can-do” terminology of which professional engineers are such masters, the report provides a factual assessment of the changes that........

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