It’s the economy, stupid.

Democratic strategist James Carville famously uttered those words first, during the 1992 U.S. presidential campaign. They’ve become the accepted political wisdom ever since.

What’s fascinating is that, in that election year, the economy should have worked against Carville and his candidate, Bill Clinton. In that election cycle, you see, Vice President George H.W. Bush’s verbal gaffes — “read my lips,” etc. — seriously damaged the Republican’s public image. But what is surprising, still, is that the GOP lost the White House despite significant GDP growth, plus approval ratings as high as 89% following victory in the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Decades of data show that the state of the economy determines election outcomes, in the United States, Canada and across Western democracies. It’s the economy, stupid, as Carville said.

Incumbents — which Kamala Harris effectively was — almost always have an electoral advantage. But that isn’t true when there’s been a recession or some economic calamity. Like, say, a pandemic which........

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