WITH the approach of the monsoons, timely precaution is needed. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has anticipated above-normal rains in the region during the season. Rainfall and temperature outlook maps from the SACOF-28 report forecast heavy rains in all the provinces and excessive temperatures in Pakistan’s snow-capped mountainous belt. This suggests looming flood conditions.

Sindh is the most vulnerable province as it is the final destination of glacial melt in the north and the hill torrents of southern Punjab and eastern Balochistan. A closer look at the temperature and rainfall maps of the report indicates the following perilous scenarios for Sindh:

(1) Scorching temperatures in the north triggering snowmelt and consequent flooding of the Indus river.

(2) Excessive rainfall in southern Punjab unleashing hill torrents from Koh-i-Suleman, which will eventually join the Indus river to swell its flows.

Timely steps can avert a disaster.

(3) Abnormal rains in eastern Balochistan, which can produce gushing spate flows entering Sindh from the Kirthar Hills. This flow can exert stress on the Flood Protection (FP) Bund and embankments of the Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD), turning Lake Manchhar into a........

© Dawn