A new year is always full of surprises. But there's at least four things which we already know will shape 2024.

The first is the cost-of-living crisis which will have big ramifications economically, socially and politically the longer it goes on.

Economically, periods of high inflation are often followed by recessions. Central banks raise interest rates to cool-off demand for goods and services but, if they go too far, risk killing the patient.

The longer inflation remains elevated the harder it is to achieve a soft landing. This is a big problem given the "higher for longer" forecasts from most economists and central banks.

Socially, the cost-of-living crisis is worsening inequality and flaming tensions. Those on low incomes are hurting. Those on high incomes are still spending. Those who own their home are seeing their wealth go up. Those who don't own their home are seeing their rents go up.

Politically, rising inflation has seen a dangerous narrative crystalise for the Albanese government: that it's spent all its time in government campaigning for a deeply unpopular Voice to Parliament while ignoring the bread and butter issue of cost-of-living.

This brings us to the second factor that (could) shape 2024: a potential federal election.

The current House of Representatives doesn't expire until July 2025. But some argue the government should go to an early election in August 2024.........

© Canberra Times