The US-Israeli war on Iran has already produced a surprisingly long list of unintended consequences. Shipping routes have been disrupted. Supply chains have come under pressure. Oil markets have endured months of turbulence.

Diplomatic relationships have been strained. International organisations have warned that higher energy and transport costs could worsen food insecurity across vulnerable regions. Yet another question is now beginning to emerge in financial markets. Could this conflict also be interfering with the very interest-rate cycle that helped fuel the artificial-intelligence boom?

At first glance, the connection appears tenuous. One concerns geopolitics and energy markets. The other concerns technology, venture capital and equity valuations. Yet financial markets rarely separate developments as neatly as investors do.

Energy prices remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Although crude has retreated from its peaks whenever reports of diplomatic progress emerge, traders continue reacting sharply to headlines from the region. Around a fifth of globally traded oil normally passes through the waterway, and even temporary disruptions can reverberate through inflation expectations, bond markets and central-bank thinking.

That matters because oil has a habit of leaking into every other price in the economy. Higher fuel costs eventually influence freight, manufacturing, fertiliser, aviation and food. Central banks can often look through short-term volatility.........

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