Markets are supposed to be forward-looking, so it’s a bit of a mystery that bonds sold off as dramatically as they did on evidence that bad first-quarter inflation was worse than previously understood. It’s tempting to brush it off as an overreaction to old news, but we still don’t know just how outdated it is.

As part of its broader report on gross domestic product, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday that a gauge of core personal consumption expenditures prices rose at a 3.7% annualized clip, the first quarterly acceleration in a year. That, in turn, sent yields on 10-year Treasury notes as high as 4.74%, the highest since Nov. 2, driven by the narrative that inflation is getting stuck at a level still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

QOSHE - Focus on the Right Inflation Data — Not Nightmare Scenarios - Jonathan Levin
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Focus on the Right Inflation Data — Not Nightmare Scenarios

19 16
26.04.2024

Markets are supposed to be forward-looking, so it’s a bit of a mystery that bonds sold off as dramatically as they did on evidence that bad first-quarter inflation was worse than previously........

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