As the 32 leaders of NATO member states gather this week in The Hague, the alliance finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. This is the first NATO summit since Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, and it comes at a moment of extraordinary global volatility – from the grinding war in Ukraine to growing instability in the Middle East and mounting tensions with China. Yet, in sharp contrast to past summits defined by bold declarations and sweeping initiatives, the 2025 NATO Summit appears more subdued in ambition, structure, and scope.

While the alliance’s leaders are expected to publicly project unity, signs suggest this summit will be largely focused on the few areas where consensus exists – particularly defense spending and industrial cooperation – while sidestepping contentious geopolitical issues in public forums.

The structure of this year’s summit is telling. The number of formal sessions has been reduced, and the draft of the summit communique being circulated among NATO capitals is shorter and less ambitious than those of previous years. Officials acknowledge this reality privately but insist that the alliance remains strong and united where it matters.

However, behind closed doors, differences are mounting. The summit’s subdued tone reflects growing internal divergences – not only about how to manage the war in Ukraine and the increasing assertiveness of China but also about the evolving role of NATO itself under Trump’s second presidency.

Publicly, the summit will place overwhelming emphasis on defense spending. Since 2006, NATO members have pledged to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on national defense, a commitment reaffirmed at the 2014 Wales Summit following Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine. At that time, only three countries met the target. A decade later, following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, 23 of NATO’s 32 members have reached or exceeded the 2 percent threshold.

Yet for Trump, this progress is not enough.

The Trump administration has put forward a new, more aggressive benchmark: a combined 5 percent of GDP to be phased in over........

© Blitz