European diplomats are accelerating efforts to cement their sanctions against Russia as concerns mount over the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2025. With Trump, the 45th US President from the Republican Party, leading in many Republican primary polls, European leaders worry that his administration could reverse the current US stance on Russia. This shift could significantly undermine Western efforts to isolate Moscow in response to its invasion of Ukraine, leaving the European Union scrambling to preserve its own restrictive measures.

To address these risks, European officials and EU envoys have launched discussions to entrench sanctions that would withstand changes in US policy. According to Reuters, these discussions are centered on multiple strategies to ensure the longevity and enforceability of EU sanctions, even in the event of a potential US policy shift. These initiatives reportedly include enhanced monitoring systems to prevent sanctioned goods from reaching Russia and further curbs on energy transactions, specifically on oil supplies.

One major focus of these discussions is the need for a more autonomous European sanctions system, independent of US backing. Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, a prominent British think tank, observed that Europe is preparing “autonomous European sanctions” in anticipation of Trump’s return to office. However, to make this vision effective, Europe would need to strengthen its enforcement capabilities, potentially placing EU institutions in a more prominent role in sanctions administration.

“Should a Trump presidency reverse US sanctions on Russia,” Keatinge said, “Europeans will need to be much more muscular in their enforcement actions.”

EU officials are also weighing legal adjustments to the current sanctions framework, particularly around the freeze on Russian........

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