Since the installation of the first border post on April 23, 2024, which was part of the process of establishing coordinates based on geodetic measurements on the ground, expectations were high that this initiative would progress the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia positively. However, that optimism has not yet materialized. This moment stands as the last significant positive development in the push for a peace agreement between the two sides. The current stalemate raises concerns that negotiations for a peace agreement, following the liberation of Azerbaijani territories from Armenian occupation, may falter. But how long can this uncertain situation persist?

Historical context:

The groundwork for these negotiations lies in Azerbaijan’s restoration of sovereignty over Garabagh in 2023. This decisive moment marked the end of nearly three decades of occupation and shifted the focus to normalization efforts. Delimitation and demarcation discussions began in earnest in 2024, with tangible results such as Armenia's return of four border villages to Azerbaijan. However, these advancements coexist with unresolved tensions, including constitutional and territorial disputes.

The post-2023 landscape has seen tangible progress in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. Key milestones include:

Territorial Restitution: Armenia’s return of four villages to Azerbaijan in 2024, in line with the Alma-Ata Declaration, marked a critical step in acknowledging each other's territorial integrity.

Bilateral Border Delimitation: Establishing a de facto peace regime has led to unprecedented cooperation, with border guards patrolling demarcated areas without helmets or bulletproof vests.

Despite these advancements, contentious issues remain particularly Azerbaijan's demand for constitutional amendments in Armenia to formally renounce territorial claims. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces mounting domestic opposition, complicating his government’s ability to sustain diplomatic momentum.

Now let’s examine the latest events and consider what the upcoming year has in store.

On December 11 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan firmly rejected Azerbaijan’s demand to amend the Armenian Constitution as a condition for a peace agreement. He........

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