I’m not interested in calling Arizona for Kamala Harris before voting even starts; but if I were, I’d point at the results of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing Donald Trump with a 5-point lead.

Voters in Arizona were contacted last week as part of a battleground state survey that showed, according to a Times analysis, “further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.”

That might be true, given that the poll showed close races in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But I’m not convinced that Trump’s lead in Arizona is anything more than a statistical blip that Harris can pounce on when she visits Arizona on Friday.

The poll, conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21, shows Trump ahead 50% to 45% in Arizona.

But just a few weeks ago, the same poll had Harris up by 4 points.

“Arizona is the murkiest,” Times writer Nate Cohn explained. “There hasn’t been much polling of the state, period, and there’s never been a time when the polls there have strung........

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