Building the Institutional Capacity to Lead Iran’s Democratic Transition

The Iranian opposition has achieved important political gains. It has significantly weakened the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic and has helped make democratic change a credible national prospect.

But one question remains unanswered — and it is the question that will determine whether Iran’s future is governed by order or by uncertainty:

If the Islamic Republic collapses, who is prepared to manage the transition?

This is not simply a matter of legitimacy. It is a matter of governance.

In international politics, there is a clear difference between supporting an opposition movement and trusting it as a credible governing alternative. Governments may endorse democracy and human rights, but when transition becomes possible, they look for institutions, structure, and evidence of readiness. They want to know whether an organized political framework exists that can preserve stability, coordinate decisions, and prevent a dangerous power vacuum.

That is why foreign governments can apply maximum pressure to the Islamic Republic while remaining cautious about giving maximum political support to the opposition. Pressure is directed at a regime.........

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