Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to bring seismic shifts in US foreign policy, with implications for regions already grappling with escalating conflicts and complex geopolitical rivalries. His “America First” approach emphasises national interests over alliances, and his unpredictable style makes his policy trajectory uncertain. Yet, many clues from his campaign trail and previous administration offer insights into what might lie ahead.

In the RussiaUkraine conflict, Mr Trump has hinted at a willingness to push Kyiv toward a negotiated settlement, potentially conditional on NATO’s future. By signaling he could end the war swiftly, Mr Trump suggests he sees diplomacy through a cost-benefit lens, where American resources and national interests take precedence. This strategy, aimed at reducing the country’s role in overseas conflicts, could have profound consequences for European security. His critiques of NATO as a burden on America add to the unease among European allies who rely on American........

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