As I write, four brigades of the Ukrainian army are advancing into the territory of the Russian Federation, and are establishing what looks like a bridgehead for further operations. They crossed the frontier from the Sumy Oblast, to the north of Kharkhiv six days ago, overpowered the Chechen frontier guards, and have been rolling to the East ever since. They occupied the town of Sudzha and are supported by air-defence, tanks, artillery, mine-clearers and heavy engineering equipment. Their activities are being called an ‘incursion’, although nothing to date suggests a short-lived raid for reconnaissance or hit-and-run purposes. By now, the Ukrainian-occupied area has passed the 1,000 km squared mark.

Anyone in the happy position of giving advice to Ukrainian commanders, would strongly advise them to target this place

The reaction of the Russian authorities has been chaotic. They were definitely caught by surprise and had no coherent defensive measures in place. Vladimir Putin called it an ‘important terrorist provocation’ and ordered a state of emergency in the Kursk Province. The mayor of Kursk has stated that so far 120,000 people have been evacuated. A number of villages in the line of the Ukrainian advance, like Lgov, have been cleared. Huge reinforcements have been promised, but at least one major military column has been ambushed and destroyed, reportedly by Ukrainian artillery using American Himar rocket launchers. Russian warplanes are flying low, clearly fearing anti-aircraft fire. Most interestingly, hints of political trouble are circulating. This week, a rumour surfaced about a bounty of one million dollars placed on the head of General Gerasimov by the new head of the Wagner Group, Pavel Prigozhin, son of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died mysteriously last year in an air crash.

Intense speculation surrounds the unstated objectives of the Ukrainian operation. As usual, the Ukrainian command is saying little, but almost all commentators agree that the first aim is to relieve pressure on hard-pressed........

© The Spectator