Something extremely worrisome is happening in and around Armenia. The country is edging closer and closer to becoming the next theater in the destructive, dangerous, and unnecessary confrontation between the West and Russia. Armenia’s revolutionary government is “pivoting” from Russia to the West, by all appearances, walking the same path paved earlier by Georgia’s and Ukraine’s color revolutions. If the experiences of Georgia and Ukraine are any indication, Moscow is unlikely to treat this development with stoic resignation. The situation is worsened by the increasingly transparent Western encouragement of Armenia’s change of course, even though no one seriously believes that the West will be willing or able to do more for Armenia than it did for Georgia if Russia were to take off the gloves.

The Rift

Up until recently, there were few safer bets than on Armenia’s continued close alliance with Russia. Given the country’s problems with some of its neighbors, its vulnerability, and the absence of adequate alternatives, that alliance seemed to be made of steel. It started showing cracks a few years ago, however, and it is now on the verge of a breakdown. In fact, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan recently stated that Armenia intends to leave the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Even though the country’s foreign minister half-heartedly attempted to deny the existence of such intentions, talk of leaving the organization has been quite common in Armenia for some time now. Some pro-government political groups have launched a campaign demanding to hold a referendum on Armenia joining the European Union (EU), with the country’s prime minister recently expressing unqualified enthusiasm for such a path as well. Given the current state of relations between the EU and Russia, that was not just an overture toward the EU. It was a demarche against Russia.

What are the actual issues that have brought the relations between Russia and Armenia to such a low point? Armenians accuse Russia of being an unreliable ally and the CSTO of being a useless institution. They claim that Russia abandoned Armenia to the tender mercies of Azerbaijan or Turkey during the Armenian-Azerbaijani war of 2020 and that, in fact, it colluded with them. The Armenian side is aggrieved by CSTO’s refusal to intervene when Azerbaijan launched cross-border........

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