Next weekend, France faces into the second round of its unexpected, dramatic general election, with a number of grave risks on the political and economic horizons. There will be implications for Europe, and Ireland.

In a year of elections globally, France has suddenly become the source of political drama as Emmanuel Macron’s plan to throw a grenade into the political arena has backfired badly. His hope was to recompose the centre of French politics but instead he has evacuated it.

Amidst a large first-round turnout, he has now re-energised the far left, which is building a rancorous coalition with other left-wing parties and, at the same time, ushered the far right to the antechamber of government. For the second time, Macron has remade the French political system.

This is an election that very few French people wanted, and the timing of it, with the holiday season and Olympics, could not have been more divisive. With the first-round results manifestly favouring the far right Rassemblement National (RN), Macron is the main loser and ‘Macronism’ (big speeches and big ideas) is very likely over.

Two broad scenarios are now forming. One is of a minority RN-led government, aided by various members of the right (mostly former Republicans). The centre and far-left parties are now engaging in a loose........

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