“If unionists have trouble holding a constituency like East Belfast, then it won’t be long until they’re having problems in places like North Down and South Belfast.”

That was said to me in the early hours of May 7 2010, by someone who had spent the previous few weeks canvassing for Peter Robinson.

He acknowledged that Robinson had been dogged by personal/political difficulties, while the intervention of a TUV candidate had also hurt his chances. But he made another point – which was of much greater significance than I realised at the time – about what he described as the “small-u unionist” drift from mainstream electoral unionism to a more centrist ground.

In some ways – and I mean no disrespect to her – Naomi Long was helped to victory in 2010 (albeit with a narrow margin of 1,533 votes) by a perfect storm of circumstances. But what mattered most was the sudden realisation that the seat was no longer a bankable unionist one.

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That was a huge fillip for Alliance – and other smaller parties – because if East Belfast was a possibility, then there was space for the significant electoral growth which had eluded the party for years.

I was sitting in a TV studio when the rumours that Robinson was in trouble began to seep through – and I still remember the look on the faces of a couple of DUP backroom staff.

During the campaign there had been concerns that he could take a hit, but I didn’t meet one person who predicted a loss.........

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