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Trump's chances edge up in presidential race

16 0
12.10.2024

Vice President Harris has lost some of her mojo in the battle for the White House.

Former President Trump’s chances of a second term are edging up, and Democrats are fretful.

To be clear, Harris might well become the next president. But the small advantage she enjoyed after a strong launch to her candidacy, including a smooth Democratic National Convention and a powerful debate performance against Trump last month, has all but vanished.

The election forecast from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) now gives Harris a 51 percent chance of victory on Nov. 5. That’s down from a high of 56 percent in late September.

In The Hill/DDHQ battleground state polling averages as of Friday afternoon, Trump led in five of the seven states and Harris in just two. When this month began, Harris had a 4-3 edge.

Caveats are important in an election where the polling margins are so tight.

First, the polls could simply be wrong, and big issues — abortion for Harris, immigration for Trump — could see higher turnout for either candidate than pollsters are projecting.

Second, shifts of a percentage point or two, even in polling averages, could be statistical “noise” rather than real evidence of movement.

Third, polls offer only a snapshot, and there is still time for new developments to have an impact — especially in this dramatic year.

For example, the degree to which Trump has pushed false information regarding federal recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton has drawn fire from Harris, President Biden and independent observers.

If there is any public backlash to his actions, it won’t show up in polls for a few days.

Still, the big trend over the past week or so is a movement, by a small but clear margin, toward........

© The Hill


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