Former President Donald Trump enters 2024 leading his Republican rivals by a national poll average of 51 percentage points. However, Iowa influencers from Trump's loyal base of evangelical voters have established goalposts also applicable to the general electorate, should Trump top the GOP ticket.

The first “goalpost” was reported by Reuters in mid-December. Quoted while presiding over a Trump prayer circle, Brad Sherman, an Iowa state legislator and pastor, cried to God, “There is a great victory coming for this nation and the world because of the calling you've placed on this man.” Another devout Iowa voter exclaimed, "We believe that he's anointed by God."

During this presidential season, long-time evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats finds himself at the opposite end of the Iowa playing field. A former leading Trump supporter, Vander Plaats, has “had enough” and now believes Trump “is not the leadership our country needs.” He predicts that “Iowa will rise up.” He earned Trump’s ire in November after endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That one person could be perceived by some evangelicals as “anointed by God” and “called” to lead a “great victory,” and by others as “not the leadership our country needs,” indicates the very schism that makes Trump the most controversial, enigmatic, and influential national political figure of the 21st century. He leads a robust, growing nationalist movement far greater than the Republican Party, while proudly expressing dictatorial sentiments for his second term.

Evangelical voters are a valued part of Trump’s movement. In 2020, 84 percent of white evangelicals supported him, compared to 77 percent in 2016, according to Pew Research.

Slightly lower, Gallup reported, 81........

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