Polls shows the US is divided on the Iran War but united on its goals 

Two weeks into the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, Americans are divided on the military operation itself, yet far more united about the threat Iran poses and the goals of the war. That is the central finding from new polling conducted by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research on behalf of the Israel on Campus Coalition.  

In a survey of more than 800 American adults, there is a clear divide on the campaign against Iran: 44 percent support the U.S.-Israeli military operation while 41 percent oppose. Predictably, this largely broke upon partisan lines. Whereas Republicans were overwhelmingly supportive (82 percent), just one-third (32 percent) of independents and 17 percent of Democrats said the same. 

At the same time, Americans broadly recognize the threat Iran poses and support the war’s goals. Indeed, two-thirds (66 percent) of Americans believe Iran poses a serious threat to the United States’ national security, almost three times the 22 percent who say Iran does not. 

Even more tellingly, while divided over the military operation itself, we found that strong majorities of Americans back the campaign’s underlying objectives: 78 percent support stopping Iran from funding terrorist groups, 72 percent support ending its nuclear program, and 59 percent support regime change.  

Taken together, these numbers tell a more nuanced story than what the majority of mainstream media is painting. Simply put, Americans appear uneasy about the conflict even as they agree with its purpose. 

This tension is especially important for the Trump administration, which has struggled to clearly explain the rationale for the war. Our polling suggests that when the case against Iran is made coherently and directly, public support increases.  

To that end, after a battery of messages covering those topics and others such as Iran’s role in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and the resulting wars throughout the region, a majority (51 percent) of Americans supported the joint military operations, versus 34 percent who opposed — a meaningful net 14-point increase from the initial 44-41 split. 

Moreover, when informed about the Iranian regime’s crackdown on January’s protests — which, by one estimate, saw government forces kill between 30,000-40,000 protestors — nearly six in 10 (59 percent) of Americans became more supportive of the ongoing military operation.  

Importantly, the rise in support cut across party lines. Following the message battery, support among Democrats nearly doubled to 32 percent, while Independents saw a 5-point increase. Republicans (85 percent) remained strongly in favor. 

Likewise, we found that despite initial opposition among Democrats and independents, when they heard about Iran’s record of hostility towards the U.S. and brutal oppression of its own people, support tended to increase rather significantly. After statements concerning the regime’s response to January’s protests, nearly one-half (48 percent) of Democrats and 44 percent of independents — large pluralities of both groups — became more supportive of U.S.-Israeli military actions. 

This does not mean that the public is not concerned. Americans have real fears about an escalation of war and instability in the region. Aside from general pacifism or blanket opposition to this specific war, there are genuine concerns over the potential for fighting to spread and the risks facing American soldiers, thirteen of whom have tragically been killed in action thus far. 

Two-thirds (66 percent) of U.S. adults said they’re worried that the fighting could escalate into a full-scale regional or world war. And in some ways, the former has already occurred, with Iran attacking a dozen or so countries in the Gulf and throughout the Middle East. 

Similarly, the potential of putting American boots on the ground — which Trump has both threatened to deploy and seemingly forswore using — received a mixed reaction. While 36 percent of respondents said it would make them more supportive of the military operation, 37 percent said it would make them less supportive — including 25 percent who said it would make them “much less supportive.”  

Even among Americans who support military action, 23 percent did so somewhat hesitantly, saying they thought it was necessary but are still concerned that American troops could be killed or wounded.  

Ultimately, the American people are not closing the door on this war, but they want clarity on what the objectives are, how they will be achieved and where the limits are. Americans recognize the danger posed by Iran and the necessity of confronting that threat, even if they are not yet fully convinced by the ever-shifting reasons Trump has provided. 

Put another way, this poll reveals a country that is divided over the war and fearful of its associated risks yet is receptive to its rationale and supportive of its goals. As the war continues, how the White House explains it and sells it to the American people may matter as much — or more — than results on the battlefield. 

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”  

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