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12:30 Report — The final countdown to election day
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The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Sign up for the 12:30 Report newsletter Subscribe *{box-sizing:border-box}body{margin:0;padding:0}a[x-apple-data-detectors]{color:inherit!important;text-decoration:inherit!important}#MessageViewBody a{color:inherit;text-decoration:none}p{line-height:inherit}.desktop_hide,.desktop_hide table{mso-hide:all;display:none;max-height:0;overflow:hidden}.image_block img div{display:none}sub,sup{font-size:75%;line-height:0} @media (max-width:620px){.mobile_hide,.row .side{display:none}.row-content{width:100%!important}.stack .column{width:100%;display:block}.mobile_hide{min-height:0;max-height:0;max-width:0;overflow:hidden;font-size:0}.desktop_hide,.desktop_hide table{display:table!important;max-height:none!important}} {beacon} @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) { #thehillheader { background-color: #2a53c1 !important; color: white !important; } }12:30 REPORT
Happy Friday and happy November! 🍂 Can you believe it’s only four days until Election Day? Try to do something relaxing this weekend to ease the tension. Go for a walk, maybe bake something. Here’s what’s happening:
- Job growth came to a big halt in October due to hurricanes and strikes.
Harris currently has a 0.3 percentage point lead, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. But our latest model gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning.
- Trump is facing backlash over a comment he made about Liz Cheney.
- A NYT analysis shows that Americans are moving based on their political affiliations. This could have a big effect on U.S. politics over the next few years.
I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.
📉 News This Morning
The final jobs report before the election was … well, not great:
Job growth came to a big halt in October with just 12,000 jobs added last month, according to new data from the Labor Department, ending a string of strong economic data.
Is this what economists expected?: Economists were bracing for a sharp drop in job gains due to the impacts of the recent hurricanes and several large strikes, but Friday's jobs figures were even worse than they expected.
The hurricanes did have a big effect: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said this morning the steep drop was partially caused by “severe damage” from the storms and their timing.
Read Sylvan Lane’s explainer on the job numbers
➤ HOW VARIOUS NEWS OUTLETS ARE FRAMING THE NEWS:
- The New York Times: “U.S. Job Growth Stalls in Days Before Vote.”
- CNN: “Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day”
- The Washington Post: “Hiring slowed sharply in final month before election amid hurricanes, strikes.”
- The Wall Street Journal: “U.S. Added 12,000 Jobs in October as Storms Sidelined Workers.”
- MarketWatch: “Dow........
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