12:30 REPORT

It’s Monday. 'Twas the night before Election Day, and the nerves are really starting to catch up to me. And, based on all of the recent reader emails I’ve been getting, it sounds like you’re all feeling it, too. Here's what's happening today:

• Why is a single Iowa poll getting so much attention?
• Trump is spending his last campaign day in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Harris is prioritizing Pennsylvania.
• Harris made a surprise appearance on "Saturday Night Live" this weekend.
• Pollster Nate Silver says "herding" can affect polling.
• How long will it take to know the election results?
• The euthanasia of a social media star squirrel has angered the right.
  
  

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

📊 Talk Of The Weekend

🎶 Came all this way, had to explain, direct from Iowa🎶:

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey shocked the election world over the weekend with a new poll showing Vice President Harris carrying a 3-point lead over former President Trump in Iowa.

It’s Iowa, a solidly red state that is not considered a battleground. This is just one poll and may be an outlier. In theory, it shouldn’t matter so much, but it does. There are two reasons:

No. 1 — It’s the pollster: Pollster Ann Selzer has an incredibly accurate record of predicting the outcome of the state’s presidential election results. And these predictions often do not mirror other polls. Veteran pollster Nate Silver writes that she “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right," describing her “near-oracular status.”

No. 2 — It could be an early warning sign for Republicans: Trump easily won Iowa both in 2016 and 2020 by 9 points and 8 points,........

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