Over the next few weeks, the Reserve Bank will ponder just how strong the economy is. And if it focuses on the labour market, unfortunately the signs are that things are not strong at all.

In some good news for homeowners and those worried about the RBA sending the economy into a recession, even after the surprisingly high May inflation figures, investors have little expectation that the Reserve Bank will raise rates in three weeks’ time:

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But the talk of a rate rise remains, even though the economy itself is struggling. Just yesterday the IMF revised down predictions for economic growth this year from 1.5% to 1.4%.

But with unemployment at 4.0% (the June figures will come out later on Thursday), are things not doing OK?

Yes, but including underemployment, which has been rising of late, the level of underutilisation (which counts both unemployment and underemployment) has risen from a low of 9.5% in February last year to 10.7% in May.

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While that is lower than we have experienced for over a decade, it suggests that jobs are now harder to get.

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And when we break down the numbers further, the strength of the labour........

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