Last week we began discussing lessons from the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Pakistan-mediated peace effort has hit roadblocks. This week's Irani demands of lifting US maritime blockade, recognition of Irani sovereignty over Hormuz, sanctions relief, guarantees about permanent peace, simultaneous cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and war reparations to Iran have been rejected by Washington, which instead demands greater scrutiny of Iran's nuclear, missile programmes and its proxies. Pakistani interlocutors are painstaking trying to bridge gaps in belligerents' perspectives, and rubbishing CBS News allegations of hiding Irani warplanes.

The world is concerned about continued disruption of supplies from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), carrying roughly 20% of the world oil, 25% LNG and up to 35% of global urea and fertiliser. Crude constitutes around 20-21 million barrels per day (mbpd), over 85% of which goes to the Asian markets (China, Japan, India and South Korea), meeting over 80% of these countries' needs. The global oil demand was projected to soar to around 104.8 mbpd in 2026.

Hormuz is about 167 km long, with a width varying between 34 and 97 km, bordering Iran, Oman and the UAE. At the narrowest point, Iran claims 22 km, leaving the rest 12 km to Oman. So technically, the shipping passes through Iran or Omani territorial waters and not the international waters.

There are five onshore pipelines that transport Saudi, Iraqi, Irani and Emirati crude; through Oman to the Arabian Sea, Saudi Arab to Red Sea, or Türkiye to Mediterranean Sea, with a maximum capacity........

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