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Home – Midterm Election News – Polls, and Who You Find Dancing on Them

Polls, and Who You Find Dancing on Them

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is out with its midterm projections, predicting 225 House seats at least “lean” Democrat.

But polls and predictions are designed, the author argues, to suppress turnout, which research shows historically benefits Democrats.

Election Day turnout will be the true decider of the midterms in Virginia.

With four days to go until the end of Virginia’s 45-day election season, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics updated its predictions made by “Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” a nickname that Larry Sabato earned in the 2002 midterm elections when he accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the House of Representatives and 32 of 34 Senate races.

In Virginia, the Crystal Ball has moved the 5th District race to toss-up, even though it is considered an “R 12” district. (Meaning Republican candidates usually win by 12%.)

It is the only district in Virginia where the Democratic candidate has more money than the Republican, and he is using it to wage a media blitz about incumbent Republican John McGuire.

One of the most outrageous claims is that McGuire supports child marriage!

I asked the congressman where this claim came from, and he told me, “It’s really sick. He tried to say I’m the only one that voted no, but 42 other Republicans voted no as well. And basically, what it did was, it raised the age of marriage to 18 in Virginia. There’s no problem with that. But I wanted to make an exception for our military.”

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