With all ordinary booths in Dunkley having primary vote counts and 51% of enrolled votes counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting a final Labor margin of 52.6–47.4, a 3.6% swing to the Liberals. This means Labor candidate Jodie Belyea will win the seat after a byelection was called in the wake of the death of former MP Peta Murphy. There have also been some postals and pre-poll votes included. The Poll Bludger’s Labor win probability is 99%.

This would be a reasonable result for Labor, as analyst Kevin Bonham said the average swing against governments in government-held seats at byelections is 6.1% since federation, and 6.3% in the last 40 years.

Labor holding Dunkley will be a big relief for the party, but it does not predict the next election result. There were four national polls taken last week, and only Newspoll gave Labor a steady lead, with slumps for Labor in Resolve, Essential and Morgan polls.

It’s still likely over a year until the next federal election. What happens in the polls over that time is far more important than the result of this byelection.

A national Essential poll, conducted February 21–25 from a sample of 1,145, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, a reversal of a 50–46 Labor lead last fortnight. This is the first lead for the Coalition this term in this poll.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 30% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down........

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