The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A uComms poll for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the Liberals 37.1% of the vote, Labor 23.0%, the Greens 13.7%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 8.5%, independents 12.8% and others 5.0%.

The Liberals have governed since winning the 2014 election. If this poll’s Labor vote of 23% is accurate, that would be a dreadful result for Labor ten years after losing power.

By 46–36, respondents thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong, rather than right, direction. A breakdown by voting intentions shows large majorities of all non-Liberal voters thought Tasmania was headed in the wrong direction.

Tasmania uses the proportional Hare Clark system, with five electorates each returning seven members for a total of 35 lower house seats, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said the Liberals would be expected to win 14 of the 35 seats if this poll is accurate, Labor ten, the Greens four, the JLN 2–3 and independents 4–5. The Liberals would be well short of the 18 needed for a majority, but much better placed to form government than Labor.

Bonham said that during the 2021 Tasmanian election campaign, uComms released a poll that greatly understated the Liberals. They have changed their methods since to include SMS as well as voice robopolling. They were accurate at the federal Dunkley byelection. Other recent........

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