Prices at a Shell gas station in Santa Clara County, Calif., on March 9, 2026.

Gas prices in California and across the country have skyrocketed over the last several days, and experts say they’re only expected to keep climbing as the war with Iran escalates. 

The gas hike reflects instability in global oil markets as the turmoil threatens critical infrastructure and supply routes. The domino effects are already being felt at the pump, especially in California, where gas prices are already higher than other states. Here what’s driving the spike and what experts say could happen next.

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As of Tuesday morning, California’s average price is $5.29 per regular gallon, approximately 62 cents higher than a week ago and 80 cents higher than a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Across the state, the average price per gallon varies widely by county, from a low of $4.67 in Modoc County to a high of $5.95 in Mono County. And in the Bay Area, the price per gallon ranges from an average of $5.31 in Solano County to $5.56 in Napa County.    

Why are gas prices so high?

The spiraling prices are primarily driven by a surge in global crude oil prices amid the war, Severin Borenstein, a professor at UC Berkeley with a concentration in economic analysis, told SFGATE. And if oil costs don’t ease, gas prices will continue to go up. 

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“Whether California gets its oil from the Central Valley or Kuwait or Venezuela or other parts of the world, [it] doesn’t matter. It still affects the price of gasoline the same because the price of all those oils goes up,” he said. 

On Monday morning, the price of crude oil briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel, before falling back to just under $90 by Tuesday. Monday’s spike happened because of Israeli strikes on oil depots in Tehran. The conflict has also disrupted oil shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, the Associated Press reported.

On Tuesday, Saudi-Arabia-based Aramco, the world’s top exporter of oil, said if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be affected, there will be “catastrophic consequences,” Reuters reported. The company’s CEO, Amin Nasser, told reporters that the war is the “biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.”

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And in a Tuesday morning news conference, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened Iran over further disruptions to the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz.

Borenstein said that previously, the U.S. and Israel avoided targeting Iran’s oil resources. But now, if retaliation or continuous attacks occur, they could push prices up even more. 

“There’s a concern that this could turn into tit-for-tat attacks on oil resources, which could drive prices much higher, if that happened,” he said. 

How are the gas prices in California affected?

The surge is especially painful for Californians, who already pay a high price for gas because of the state’s limited refineries and higher taxes.

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“What we end up paying for gasoline is the price of oil plus the price of refining and distributing, etc., the price of oil goes up,” Borenstein said. “That just puts a higher base on which we are then paying all these other costs.” 

In April, Valero plans to idle its refinery in Benicia, which is responsible for producing 145,000 barrels of oil per day. The refinery cited several reasons for leaving the state, such as strict regulatory requirements, a common pattern with California refineries. Multiple California refineries have also faced unexpected operating problems in recent years, such as a massive explosion at the Martinez Refining Company, which have reduced the refining capacity even more. 

California’s seasonal switch from a winter blend of gasoline to a summer blend is also on the horizon, which typically results in higher prices. 

When will we see relief?

Even with the current uncertainty, California gas prices also have some way to go before they reach the current record high of an average of $6.43 per gallon set in June 2022. 

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Borenstein said drivers won’t see relief until the global price of oil goes down — for example, for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, the price at the pump goes up by about 2 1/2 cents. But that all depends on what happens as the war unfolds.

“It’s basically all driven by whether the war ends quickly, whether it involves a lot of damage to oil resources,” he said, adding that the conflict and subsequent oil market shifts are a “volatile situation.” 

“When it comes to a conflict, you never know what’s going to happen until it does,” said Matt McClain, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy. “... The information that we’re seeing right in front of us lends to the idea that there’s just no way we’re going to see the prices begin to relax until something moves.”

What should people do in the meantime? 

McClain told SFGATE that California’s gas prices are an “area of obvious concern,” with prices expected to go up another 20 to 30 cents a gallon this week. And as the timeline of the war remains uncertain, he said that there are several things drivers can do to help reduce the burden, starting with not speeding because it takes extra fuel. 

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“It can be as much as 25% to 35% of fuel efficiency that you lose because you are driving so much faster than you probably ought to be,” McClain said. “These things all add up to help with a little bit of savings.” 

Borenstein also recommended that drivers in California shop around for different prices rather than just going to the nearest gas station. 

“California has much larger price dispersion across stations than any other state, and so shopping around has a real payoff,” he said. “In most other states, it would be unheard of to see two stations a block or two apart with price differences of 40 or 50 cents.” 

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