US News Metro Long Island Politics

Sports NFL MLB Olympics NBA NHL College Football College Basketball WNBA

Business Personal Finance

Entertainment TV Movies Music Celebrities Awards Theater

Lifestyle Weird But True Sex & Relationships Viral Trends Human Interest Parenting Fashion & Beauty Food & Drink Travel

Health Wellness Fitness Health Care Medicine Men’s Health Women’s Health Mental Health Nutrition

Science Space Environment Wildlife Archaeology

Today’s Paper Covers Columnists Horoscopes Crosswords & Games Sports Odds Podcasts Careers

Email Newsletters Official Store Home Delivery Tips

Switch between CA and NY editions here.

Iran war has a ‘second front’ — and Tehran has already lost it

A few days ago, according to a leaked exchange, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told an Iranian military counterpart that their nation’s economy will face collapse in three more weeks without an immediate cease-fire.

Conventional wisdom holds that an air campaign alone cannot trigger a popular uprising, so the combined US-Israel effort in Operation Epic Fury won’t result in meaningful regime change.

But that fails to recognize there’s a second front in this conflict: economic warfare.

And on that front, Iran has already lost.

President Trump’s goal in his first term was to resolve the Iran issue through primarily economic means.

Desperate Iran recruiting children as young as 12 to defend ‘homeland’ from ‘bully’ US

7 key takeaways from Trump’s Iran speech, where he made the case on why the US military must finish the job

Trump mercilessly berates France’s Macron — after ratcheting up attacks on NATO: ‘Still recovering from the right to the jaw’

After a year of renegotiating the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, he withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran’s key sectors to prevent nuclear development.

The campaign focused on secondary sanctions — penalties on non-Iranian actors for doing business with the regime.

Some 1.5 million barrels of oil per day were removed from the market, and Tehran’s revenue losses topped $200 billion.

Headlines screamed that Iran was on the verge of collapse.

Trump’s forthright leadership will finish the job in Iran

Yet in 2021 the Biden administration chose to stop enforcing the sanctions, and even provided the Islamic Republic with some $144 billion in additional revenue.

The oil started flowing again, primarily to communist China.

But none of this money was invested in spurring economic growth in Iran, or used to help reduce daily costs for the Iranian people.

Instead, it was poured into Tehran’s terrorist proxies — funding, for example, the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

The Iranian regime also focused heavily on its nuclear program, installing thousands of additional centrifuges and enriching uranium to ever-higher levels.

But Trump re-applied sanctions in his second term — and by last October, significant fissures began to appear. 

Two major Iranian banks failed, triggering ever-increasing inflation as the rial cratered.

In December, the economic pain became acute.

The Tehran bazaar, traditionally a source of conservative support for the regime, broke into open rebellion, and the Iranian people poured into the streets.

The regime cracked down with unprecedented savagery, slaughtering some 30,000 dissidents in early January, and the protests understandably petered out.

The world waited to see how Trump would respond.

American military assets began to flow into the region, and in late February, the president gave the order to commence Epic Fury.

By every conceivable military metric, it has been a stunning success — but it’s only half the story.

For weeks, the regime has restricted Iran’s Internet to 1% of its normal usage, dramatically constricting commerce.

The day before Epic Fury began, the BBC reported that the days-long internet closure that had been part of the January crackdown had caused disastrous economic pain — which pales in comparison to what has happened by now.

Iran announced a new five-million-rial bank note, known as the “Iran Cheque,” on Feb. 1.

Democratic pollster: Benefit of defanging Iran far outweighs cost of war

It wasn’t enough: Ten days ago, Tehran introduced a ten-million-rial note as its currency continued its downward spiral.

Conservative estimates put inflation at 40% before the war began.

On March 6, a week into the battle, Chatham House projected that if the war did not conclude quickly, the Iranian economy would contract by 10%, triggering a depression.

Pezeshkian’s concerns about what will happen in coming weeks are well founded, although if oil exports resume the regime may have a little more time than he projected.

Yet the second front of the Iran war will inevitably recommence the day after the military phase of the operation concludes — and may prove the more deadly for the Islamic Republic.

Ideally, the reality of looming economic catastrophe will incentivize the Iranian negotiators to accept Trump’s demands: no nuclear program, no missile program, no navy, and no military-industrial base.

Absent this, economic collapse will be very difficult to avoid.

In this eventuality, a popular uprising might well occur for the same reasons it did in January — and whatever is left of the Iranian regime will no doubt respond even more savagely than we saw before.

That’s why it’s important to degrade their capabilities now, as recent Israeli strikes on Basij security forces indicate.

The United States, for its part, can focus on getting reliable, encrypted Internet access to the Iranian people, via Starlink terminals or other means.

Either way, it’s hard to see the regime-controlled economy — let alone the regime itself — surviving intact.

Given its resources, its location and its brave population, Iran should be a prosperous, secure nation.

It can be great again if the Iranian people take advantage of the chance President Trump has given them.

Victoria Coates is vice president of Heritage’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy.

Miranda Devine Dems' callous rebuke of an Iryna Zarutska mural exposes their own twisted, backwards 'values'

Dems' callous rebuke of an Iryna Zarutska mural exposes their own twisted, backwards 'values'

Michael Goodwin Democrats are revving up to raid New Yorkers pockets for freebies

Democrats are revving up to raid New Yorkers pockets for freebies

Michael Benjamin Mamdani's blatant disregard for the middle class has put him at odds with black New Yorkers

Mamdani's blatant disregard for the middle class has put him at odds with black New Yorkers

Front Cover Back Cover

Trending Now on NYPost.com

This story has been shared 117,603 times. 117,603 Trump fires Pam Bondi as attorney general — names temporary replacement

Trump fires Pam Bondi as attorney general — names temporary replacement

This story has been shared 64,708 times. 64,708 Teen girl who went missing in Arizona over 30 years ago miraculously found alive

Teen girl who went missing in Arizona over 30 years ago miraculously found alive

This story has been shared 61,826 times. 61,826 Video shows heart-wrenching moment NYC mom realizes her 7-month-old daughter was shot dead

Video shows heart-wrenching moment NYC mom realizes her 7-month-old daughter was shot dead

Shocking twist in Dak Prescott and Sarah Jane Ramos' custody drama after NFL star drags ex to court

Stream It Or Skip It: 'Dear Killer Nannies' On Hulu, A Drama Detailing The Life Of Pablo Escobar's Son And The Drug War He Inherited

Trump fires Pam Bondi as attorney general — names temporary replacement

Sections & Features US News Metro World News Sports Sports Betting Business Opinion Entertainment Fashion & Beauty Shopping Lifestyle Real Estate Media Tech Science Health Travel Astrology Video Photos Alexa Covers Horoscopes Sports Odds Podcasts Crosswords & Games Columnists Classifieds

Post Sports+ Subscribe Articles Manage

Newsletters & Feeds Email Newsletters RSS Feeds NY Post Official Store Home Delivery Subscribe Manage Subscription Delivery Help

NY Post Official Store

Home Delivery Subscribe Manage Subscription

Help/Support About New York Post Editorial Standards New York Post Awards & Recognition Customer Service Apps Help Community Guidelines Contact Us Tips Newsroom Letters to the Editor Licensing & Reprints Careers Vulnerability Disclosure Program

New York Post Awards & Recognition

Contact Us Tips Newsroom Letters to the Editor Licensing & Reprints Careers Vulnerability Disclosure Program

Letters to the Editor

Vulnerability Disclosure Program

Apps iPhone App iPad App Android Phone Android Tablet

Advertise Media Kit Contact

© New York Post